calculated risk

noun

a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

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Idioms and Phrases

A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk . This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

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Example Sentences

He took a calculated risk entering the quagmire of Italian politics and it backfired.

From The Daily Beast

In launching Operation Pillar of Defence, Netanyahu is taking an uncharacteristic gamble—albeit a calculated risk.

From The Daily Beast

This might inspire better general-election candidates to make the calculated risk that comes with running for president.

From The Daily Beast

Displaying her trademark spirit, Pelosi took a calculated risk, and will likely pay a high price in just a few weeks.

From The Daily Beast

Suarez, who was sent off for a deliberate handball, was more than deserved, but a calculated risk.

From The Daily Beast

"It's what we call in warfare a calculated risk, Bud," he said.

From Project Gutenberg

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Definitions and idiom definitions from Dictionary.com Unabridged, based on the Random House Unabridged Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2023

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